Why California's Democratic presidential primary matters
This article includes a brief but useful discussion of how Kucinich could benefit from a good showing in California. Originally published in the San Francisco Chronicle
Why California's Democratic presidential primary matters
Marc Sandalow, Washington Bureau Chief
Washington -- As the nation's most reliable Democratic stronghold, with its trove of 370 convention delegates and mother lode of 55 electoral votes, California should be the most important stop on the road to the White House.
Democratic candidates seeking to prove their strength need look no further than the progressive hills of San Francisco, the union households of the East Bay, the barrios of the Central Valley and Los Angeles, the gilded streets of Beverley Hills and up and down the environmentally devoted communities along the coast for places to establish their legitimacy as their party's standard bearer.
Yet California's 2004 presidential primary has evolved into something less.
Like the prime rib at the end of a fancy buffet, California is preceded by too many tasty-looking side dishes to let diners concentrate on the main event. Iowa and New Hampshire stand at the beginning of the line and capture the most attention. South Carolina has a southern allure, while Michigan holds the promise of broad-shouldered, union strength. Even modest Wisconsin eked out a place all to itself on the election calendar, turning the cheesehead primary into a national affair that dwarfed the buildup to the mighty Golden State.
California now finds itself bunched in with nine other states selecting delegates two days from now in the closest event to a national primary of the 2004 campaign. As Tuesday's vote approaches, Californians have caught only a fleeting glimpse of the four surviving Democratic candidates. Candidates spent far more time in the state last year collecting contributions than they have in the past few weeks seeking votes. The news media paid just as much attention to the contest the same day in Ohio, which has 24 million fewer residents than California, but is regarded as a battleground state for the general election.
By the time the polls close in California, the votes will be mostly counted in the other nine states, with networks pundits already offering opinions on whether the day strengthens John Kerry's march toward the nomination, or if a surge in support for John Edwards will prolong the competition. Much of the nation will have already gone to bed.
All of which make it easy to overlook the enormous stakes in Tuesday's California vote.
The outcome is not on the line the way it was in 1972, when George McGovern bested Hubert Humphrey in what was then a winner-take-all vote to clinch the party's nomination. Still, a strong showing by Kerry would provide the Massachusetts senator a nearly insurmountable delegate lead. A victory for Edwards would completely alter the dynamics of the race, putting the North Carolina senator in strong position to challenge Kerry's front-runner status.
Kerry is the prohibitive favorite for the nomination not because of the delegates he has won, but by virtue of his winning 18 of the first 20 states. After Tuesday, the delegate count will begin to matter. Kerry currently has about 660 delegates, depending on who's counting, leaving him about 1,500 short of what he needs to secure the nomination. Three-quarters of the delegates have yet to be selected.
On Tuesday, 1,151 delegates will be chosen, about one-third the total number available during the entire primary season, and about 50 times more than were up for grabs in last month's New Hampshire primary.
If Kerry wins Tuesday by margins similar to those he won by in other states, his delegate total will soar above 1,500, and put him on a path to clinch the nomination in the March 16 Illinois primary.
On the other hand, an Edwards' victory in California would once again turn the race on its head, allowing a candidate who has been a distant No. 2 to claim he has the most appeal in the nation's premier Democratic state.
An unexpectedly strong showing on Tuesday would put Edwards in good position for the following week's contests, when four Southern states -- Texas, Florida, Louisiana and Mississippi -- divide up 465 delegates in the primary season's second-biggest day of voting. Even if Edwards only wins a fair number of those delegates, that would make it hard for Kerry to collect enough to officially go over the top until well into April.
"We need to show that this is a two-man race. If we can show that on March 2, then we will be in good shape,'' said Edwards' spokesman Roger Salazar.
The delegate count is not lost on Edwards, who told reporters: "I intend to compete hard in California for a very simple reason -- the number of delegates there.''
The latest polls suggest such an Edwards surge is unlikely. The Field Poll released last week showed Kerry ahead with 60 percent of the vote and Edwards a distant second with 19 percent. The poll was conducted before Thursday's debate and prior to Edwards' visit to the state last week. Most analysts expect the race to tighten by Tuesday, but few expect Kerry to lose. Kerry is ahead in each state voting Tuesday in which polls have been conducted.
The California primary also provides Rep. Dennis Kucinich, D-Ohio, a chance to show his strength. Kucinich's' performance in Hawaii last week, where he won 30 percent of the vote and six delegates, was his best showing of the year. Although no one expects him to approach that level of support on Tuesday, Kucinich's unreconstructed liberal views on matters ranging from gay marriage to withdrawing from Iraq hold appeal among a bloc of California's progressive voters. A strong showing by Kucinich would help to seal his place as a national spokesman for the left.
Al Sharpton has focused his efforts for Tuesday on his home state of New York. The Field Poll showed him attracting just 2 percent of the California vote.
California has not always been a primary season stepchild. It was here that conservative Barry Goldwater knocked off moderate Nelson Rockefeller and sent the GOP down a right-wing path. Robert Kennedy won a pivotal victory in 1968, before he was murdered after his victory speech at the Ambassador Hotel in Los Angeles.
"At one time, the California primary was one of the most important events in presidential politics,'' said William Mayer, a professor of political science at Northeastern University in Boston and the author of "The Front- Loading Problem in Presidential Nomination.''
"Now it is getting less and less important.''
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