Washington state caucus could make or break candidates
Originally published in the Olympian
State caucus could make or break candidates
Early surprises in Democratic contests put Washington in spotlight
BRAD SHANNON THE OLYMPIAN
As U.S. Sen. John Kerry's star has risen as a presidential candidate, Mary Stuart Lux's smile has returned.
Lux, a former Democratic state legislator and former member of the Olympia City Council, said she signed on with Kerry's presidential campaign months ago. But she watched with dismay as Thurston County activists built public support for then-front-runner Howard Dean, progressive Dennis Kucinich and the campaign latecomer, Gen. Wesley Clark -- until Kerry's dramatic victories in Iowa and New Hampshire last month.
"I was the only person I knew who was a Kerry supporter," said Lux, who now lives in Panorama City and thinks Kerry, as a Vietnam veteran and longtime senator from Massachusetts, has the necessary "experience in foreign policy and in war" to replace President Bush.
As Kerry's campaign surges, many people think Washington's precinct caucuses Saturday morning now mark the make-or-break point for the seven Democratic candidates still running.
About 600 gathering sites statewide are expected to host 50,000 to 60,000 participants. It is the first time the events have been scheduled for a Saturday morning, rather than a Tuesday evening, to try to draw more working people and seniors who don't like to go out at night.
The move could result in record turnout, and the candidates are responding.
Kerry has put 20 paid workers into his Washington campaign, and he's the only candidate waging campaigns in all seven states that conduct primaries Tuesday, said Ali Wade, his state director.
Backers of Dean and Kucinich have worked for months to build networks of dozens of supporters, who they hope will show up in force at the caucuses. Kucinich will visit Saint Martin's College on Wednesday morning.
Clark supporters also have launched an effort locally, and both Clark and Kerry could make appearances in the state in the next couple of days.
"I think Washington state is going to make or break a lot of candidates," state Democratic Party spokeswoman Kirstin Brost said. "For Kucinich, this could be his best state so far. I think that is what his people are hoping for."
The same might be true for Dean, who had led Kerry in Iowa and New Hampshire but fell behind when it counted.
High stakes
A poll done by Evergreen Research Group for the Washington Democratic Party in December showed Dean leading both Kerry and Clark here by 41 percent to 10 percent. The poll of 625 voters had an error margin of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. But that was before Iowa and New Hampshire.
In a sign Dean doesn't want to see Washington's prized 78 caucus delegates slip away, he visited Seattle on Saturday for a town hall discussion of health care issues. Dean also faces tough fights Tuesday in seven states that conduct "Super Tuesday" primaries and caucuses -- South Carolina, Missouri, Arizona, Delaware, New Mexico, Oklahoma and North Dakota.
Backers of Clark, including Olympia organizer Ken Valz, have said Tuesday is the date Clark's campaign could take off -- or Kerry's will virtually lock up the nomination.
"If General Clark doesn't win a state that night, there will be a lot of Clark supporters who would be happy with John Kerry, because they are similar -- in that both are war heroes and share the same backers. ..." Valz said. "If General Clark and (U.S. Sen.) John Edwards don't win a state that night, John Kerry is our nominee, and he will be a formidable candidate."
Because no one knows what is going to happen Super Tuesday, Washington's caucuses "could be make-or-break for people, depending on where their campaigns are," Brost said. "I think the Dean people are looking at Feb. 7 as the take-off date."
Clark is seen by his backers as the most viable Democrat to beat President Bush in the South, because of his Arkansas roots and his military experience. Clark had commanding roles with NATO in Kosovo.
Walt Bowen, Thurston County organizer for Dean, contends that the Washington caucuses are "going to have one heck of a lot of influence" on the outcome.
"Some folks are really excited to get Bush out of there," Bowen said of his fellow Dean supporters, who have turned out regularly for "MeetUps" to organize.
Kucinich backers also have been out in force, local organizer Cheryl Crist said. "We have a lot of bumper stickers out," Crist said. "We have a lot of people out doorbelling in precincts that have a tradition of people voting Democratic."
But Kerry is gaining, and Lux is no longer alone in her support locally.
"I don't feel isolated. I'm disappointed that people pay so little attention to doing their homework," Lux said. "He's said over and over that the United States shouldn't go to war because they want to, but because they have to. In other words, he still supports the military, but unless we are being attacked or absolutely have to, we should not go to war."
Martin Moore, president of the Democratic Donkey Club at Saint Martin's College, also is lining up behind Kerry -- even though Moore was leaning toward Dean and had done the legwork that persuaded Kucinich, the most outspoken of the anti-war Democrats, to visit Lacey.
"I liked (Dean) because of his ambition. He was strong," Moore said. "I just feel Dean is not watching what he is saying. He's not being careful. Kerry, I think, is the man for the job. He has foreign policy experience, which is the No. 1 thing we need."
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