Among Democrats, Minnesota matters
Originally published in the Star Tribune
Among Democrats, Minnesota matters
Bob Von Sternberg, Star Tribune
Published February 20, 2004
Next stop, Minnesota.
As the Democratic presidential campaign rolls on toward its 10-state Super Tuesday showdown on March 2, Minnesotans will find themselves aggressively courted by the candidates who are still standing.
Although the state is far from the richest prize to be won that day, campaigns are devoting time, staff and money here.
And with the race shaping up as a two-man battle between Sens. John Kerry and John Edwards, Minnesota's precinct caucuses are shaping up to be more consequential than they appeared to be just a few days ago, when Kerry was being treated as the party's presumptive nominee.
"This year, Minnesota matters," said DFL Party spokesman Bill Amberg. "Democrats are charged up over what's going to be an interesting race."
Kerry campaigns in Washington.Ron EdmondsAssociated PressUniversity of Minnesota political scientist Larry Jacobs, who believes Kerry will win the state, said it has more symbolic value than its size might indicate.
"Kerry obviously needs to win the state because it would send a powerful message he's got a strong base in the Upper Midwest," Jacobs said. "If Edwards could win, it could send a message that he's what the party needs and it would give him strong credentials to be on the ticket as a running mate."
Even though Kerry and Edwards clearly are the front-runners, the lagging campaign of Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich has long been active in the state and his grass-roots supporters could have an effect on caucuses, Amberg said.
"Kucinich is still organized here, but the field's really winnowed down to the two front-running candidates here," he said.
Jacobs said Kucinich's vote total is likely to hover in the single digits.
'It's not a two-man race'
Assessments like that really irritate Kucinich's supporters. "It's not a two-man race," said Nichola Torbett, spokeswoman for the Kucinich campaign in Minnesota. "It's very, very frustrating. I wish there wasn't this urge by the media and the [Democratic National Committee] to call the race before people have had a chance to vote. It's a real de-motivator."
Even though former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean is now a former candidate, he could prove to be a wild card on March 2 if his die-hard supporters show up and vote for him on a ballot that still contains his name.
The Kucinich, Edwards and Kerry campaigns have all opened offices in the state and have imported volunteers from other states. Also, the candidates are planning to offer face time to Minnesotans.
Edwards arrives Saturday afternoon, when he holds a rally in St. Paul; his wife, Elizabeth, plans to visit the state Monday. Kerry's campaign hopes to arrange a visit early next week; his wife, Teresa, made a two-day stop in the Twin Cities earlier this week. Kucinich is investing the most time, scheduling appearances in Virginia, Duluth, Northfield and the Twin Cities today and Saturday.
The Dean factor
The campaigns are casting a wary eye toward the supporters of Dean, who folded his campaign Wednesday. "I think quite a few folks will still come out for Howard Dean," said Hubert (Buck) Humphrey, who's heading Kerry's Minnesota campaign. "But I'd hope they'd take a look at John."
Not likely, if hundreds of venomous anti-Kerry screeds posted this week on Dean's campaign Web page are any indication. Those posts were only slightly warmer toward Edwards.
In the early stages of the campaign, Dean appeared to be the front-runner in Minnesota, with thousands of signed-up supporters and union members who had the potential to flood caucuses that attracted only about 11,000 DFLers four years ago, when then-Vice President Al Gore had a virtual lock on the Democratic endorsement.
Kerry also is seen as a strong contender in Minnesota, primarily because he attracted the most high-powered endorsements from party activists.
"We're definitely not ruling out Senator Edwards -- he'll play tough here," Humphrey said. "He's got a very populist message, he's good-looking and charismatic. But this is going to be won on the ground by whoever has the best organization."
Edwards' lead organizer in the state, Minneapolis City Council Member Scott Benson, said the campaign is wooing Dean backers. "We hope a lot of folks who were enthusiastic about Governor Dean are going to be receptive to what John Edwards is saying," he said.
Torbett said the Kucinich camp harbors the same hope. "We think we're inheriting quite a few Dean supporters," she said.
Although Edwards' campaign announced endorsements by several state legislators and local officials this week, "you can see how much endorsements matter -- not a lot in the contests so far," Benson said. "We're hopeful we can pull out a win here, which would be important to show Edwards can win in the South, the Midwest, the North and the West."
Minnesota, which will award only 72 of the 1,151 Democratic convention delegates at stake on Super Tuesday, will probably be overshadowed that day by bigger, more delegate-rich states.
But with the Upper Midwest looming as one of the most important battlegrounds in November, a strong showing in Minnesota will send a strong signal of electability, Jacobs said.
"This region is up for grabs, and Minnesota is no longer a flyover state," he said. "Without winning Minnesota, a Democrat probably can't win and Minnesota is no longer a lock for them."
Humphrey said: "No, we probably won't be at center stage on Super Tuesday. But everyone said Minnesota wouldn't be in play, that it'd all be over before March 2. We said it would be [in play], and we turned out to be right."
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