Washington caucuses grow in importance
Originally published in the Oregonian
Washington caucuses grow in importance
Howard Dean's stumble in Iowa shuffles the deck, increasing the value of the state's 95 delegates
01/21/04
JEFF MAPES
VANCOUVER -- Michele Cotner addressed her fellow Howard Dean supporters at a restaurant here Monday night as they glumly watched their candidate take a drubbing in the Iowa caucuses.
"We need to talk about what we're going to do," said the veteran Democratic activist, "because Washington is going to become very important."
With that, Cotner urged volunteers to redouble their efforts to knock on doors and phone voters in advance of the state's Feb. 7 caucuses, which overnight took on a whole new meaning.
Dean, the former Vermont governor, was once thought to be in position to easily win the caucuses, thanks to a strong organization in Washington and the support of almost all the state's Democratic Party leadership.
But with Dean's implosion in Iowa, supporters for the other Democratic candidates -- and John Kerry in particular -- see a fresh opening in Washington. And because it now looks like no candidate will deliver a quick knockout blow in the first few weeks of caucuses and primaries, Washington appears increasingly likely to play a meaningful role in picking the Democratic nominee.
In many ways, it will be a new role for the Washington caucuses, which have not enjoyed much respect either in state or in the rest of the country.
The results of the caucuses never got much attention nationally because the results came in too late for East Coast media deadlines. Washington Democratic officials sought to solve the problem by moving the caucuses from their traditional Tuesday night slot to a Saturday morning, enabling them to announce a winner early in the afternoon.
The Legislature recently voted to abolish this year's presidential primary after the national Democratic Party refused to allow such an election to be used to allocate delegates to the party's convention. Reformers have tried for years, without much success, to replace the caucuses with a different type of primary that would attract a larger share of the electorate.
The Dean campaign has lavished attention on Washington state for months. Dean visited the state four times last year and has had a paid staff in place since summer. State Party Chairman Paul Berendt personally endorsed Dean, as did a number of other top Democratic officials.
Hundreds of Dean volunteers -- including many who live in Oregon, which won't hold its primary until May 18 -- have been canvassing Washington households to find supporters who will turn out for the caucuses. Supporters say Dean has played well in the Northwest, where voters have long appreciated plain-spoken mavericks.
"This campaign is really something to behold," said Karen Marchioro, a Democratic national committeewoman from Seattle and a former state party chair who has also endorsed Dean. Now, she said, it's clear Dean needs Washington more than ever.
"It was always our desire," she added, "that if things turned shaky, we'd have a firewall for Dean" in Washington state.
But other candidates are now thinking that firewall could be breached.
Candidates look for openings Kerry, the Massachusetts senator who won Iowa, also has paid staffers in Washington and had been hoping to win some of the state's 95 delegates. Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash., and Kerry's most prominent backer in Washington, said he thinks Dean is still the favorite. But he said he now feels better about the senator's chances.
Kerry's win in Iowa "certainly puts Washington state very much in play," Smith said. "Howard Dean is not headed in a positive direction."
Smith, whose district includes two big military bases by Tacoma, said Kerry has a strong following among veterans, who are a big constituency in Washington state. He said Kerry also has a following among environmentalists because of his support for alternative energy sources and for raising automobile mileage standards.
Wesley Clark also has a strong volunteer presence in Washington state, thanks in part to his military ties, said Kevin Price, a University of Washington political science professor who is on leave to run Clark's campaign in Washington.
"We want to be in a position to catch the wave if and when it occurs," he said. Clark, who skipped Iowa, faces his first major test Tuesday in New Hampshire.
Rep. Dennis Kucinich, D-Ohio, has opened a campaign office in the state and has what several Democrats describe as a strong volunteer presence. Kucinich on Tuesday announced he'd be campaigning in the state for three days before the caucuses.
"We believe we have one of his strongest followings in this state," said Patty Kuderer, a Washington spokeswoman for Kucinich, noting that he has been endorsed by the longshoremen local in Tacoma. [ed. note: yet another report showing Kucinich has one of the top four campaign organizations in Washington state]
Sens. John Edwards, D-N.C., and Joseph Lieberman, D-Conn., have paid little attention to Washington state, other than to make fund-raising trips. But local Democrats said that could change, depending on what happens in the next few weeks.
Series of votes After the New Hampshire primary, seven states will hold primaries or caucuses on Feb. 3. Washington, the first West Coast state to vote, will hold its caucuses four days later, as will Michigan. Democrats said they expected a flurry of candidate visits to Washington between Feb. 3 and Feb. 7.
The decision by Rep. Dick Gephardt, D-Mo., to withdraw from the race Tuesday after finishing fourth in the Iowa caucuses could also affect the Washington race.
Gephardt, who had been endorsed by several unions, traveled to Seattle last week to speak at a meeting sponsored by the Machinists and Teamsters, both of which backed him. His exit opened an opportunity to other candidates to woo those and other unions that have traditionally played an important role in the caucuses.
Dean, however, already has the support of two unions, Service Employees International Union and the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, which have been organizing on his behalf.
Although Washington has held presidential primaries in the past, it has largely relied on caucuses to distribute delegates. That's because the parties -- and Democrats in particular -- object to Washington's practice of allowing voters to participate in primaries without declaring party allegiance. Unlike in Oregon, Washingtonians do not declare a party preference when they register to vote.
Democratic officials say that in past years, their caucuses have at most attracted 60,000 voters, a small fraction of an electorate that now totals about 3.2 million.
This year, Democrats expect a record turnout, but party spokeswoman Kirstin Brost said she didn't have any forecast of a specific number.
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