Understanding the Iowa Caucus results
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THE IOWA CAUCUS: THE SYSTEM AND HOW IT WORKS
There are great, democratic advantages to the Iowa caucus system over a primary. Neighbors actually come together, to work together in the most basic process of selecting a candidate and drafting a platform.
Our nation is stronger, and better governed, as a result of the Iowa caucuses. It will be the worse if they are ever abandoned.
But let there be no mistake: the way the system works there is a very heavy skewing in support of the leading candidates, and against those with less support.
Indeed, Dennis could have had as much as 14% of those in attendance at each of the 1,993 precincts and today's press would report simply
(because those are the only numbers made available to them) that he received zero delegates.
You see, you need 15% of the attendees at any given precinct caucus
(and you can only attend the caucus in the precinct where you live and vote) "in order to play the game." (The game is electing delegates from your precinct to the county convention -- although these are translated into a number of "state equivalent delegates" for reporting to the media.) And that's only the "entry fee." The candidates' supporters go to corners of the room to see how many they have. Less than 15% of all who are present and your group, your candidate, is not "viable." What that means is that all the, say, Kucinich attendees, then have no options but to (a) go home, (b) join another candidate's group, or (c) try to organize enough "undecided" to compete for a delegate to the county convention for the undecided. They are simply not counted, or reported, in any way whatsoever as having been there for Dennis.
And 15% may not be enough. If your precinct has four delegates you need closer to 25%; two delegates and you need closer to 50%.
So, if your candidate's supporters come into the caucus as 30-50% of the attendees it doesn't make so much difference exactly how many you have. But if your candidate's supporters come in with 5-20% it makes an enormous difference.
THE IOWA CAUCUS: OUR RESULTS
Given the way the caucus system works, our dedicated staff, organization, money and other resources, relative lack of TV commercials, and media coverage, I think Dennis' ability to get delegates in nearly one-third of Iowa's 99 counties is an enormous accomplishment. (Clark, thought by some to be a frontrunner, with lots of active support, yard signs in my home town, etc., notwithstanding his "not running in Iowa," got absolutely _no_ delegates in 91 of the 99 counties. Neither Lieberman nor Sharpton got _any_ delegates in _any_ county. That should put all of this in perspective for you.)
Dennis got 25% of the delegates in my precinct. He got 29% of the delegates in one county. He got 7.3% in my county (which made us 2nd or 3rd in the state). He picked up some delegates in 28 of the 99 counties.
Given the way the caucus system is structured (rigged?), the resources of the other candidates, and what we were able to do, I think this is an enormous accomplishment on Dennis' part.
Clearly he did many multiples better, measured by number of caucus _attendees_ (rather than committed county convention delegates), than the poll projections of 1-3% support.
Moreover, we circulated statewide proposed platform planks that reflected Dennis' major positions.
There is no way to know, at this point in time, how many were proposed, let alone adopted, in the 1,993 precints. But in my precinct all the 8 that were proposed were unanimously adopted. That is yet another indication of the impact Dennis' has had on this state and this Party.
DENNIS IN THE PRIMARIES
The primaries will be a much better test, especially as other candidates have begun dropping out.
That was the real question. What do the 1-3% poll results mean (if accurate)? Is there a hardcore, only, of that percentage that never changes regardless of how many choices there are? Or, as the field narrows, does Dennis' share of the electorate increase?
We'll soon be finding out starting in New Hampshire.
What we already know are the District of Columbia results. In a heavily African-American area, running against the then 30-40% frontrunner, Dean, and two African-American candidates (Sharpton and Braun), Dennis received not 1%, 2% or 3%, but 8% of the vote. That fact received vry little attention, but I think it is quite significant.
So far three have dropped out: Graham, Braun, and today Gephardt. There will be more.
DENNIS' ACCOMPLISHMENTS
Even if Dennis becomes the Party's nominee, his contribution to our nation through this campaign is not so much his candidacy, as such, as an individual (as impressive, commendable and inspiring as that may be), as it is the impact of his spirit upon the American people, the stark contrast he brings to the policy discussions, and his ability to move the candidates, and the nation, on the issues he espouses and the spiritual way in which he presents them.
I have spoken _for_ Dennis on occasion, I have introduced him (most recently at a major event yesterday afternoon), I have listened to him dozens of times, and I never fail to be moved and inspired by what he says, how he says it, and the spiritual person he is. My reaction is shared by the others present -- as it was yesterday. Many of you have had that experience.
You know who else is now talking about "UN in and US out" of Iraq? George Bush (though he really doesn't "get it"). You know who else is talking about "universal health care"? Dean (though what he is proposing is nothing of the sort). Issue after issue, expression after expression, Dennis is shaping dialogue and policy for our nation merely by running.
I am extremely proud of this man. Today more than ever.
But his, ours, is a long, slow, difficult road. It is a calling of a lifetime, not merely a presidential campaign. Let us take our example from the peace walkers, crossing this country on foot to demonstrate their support of Dennis. It is an honorable and noble thing we do. We are all in the debt of Dennis Kucinich for making the greatest sacrifices of all with his leadership and exausting undertaking. Nothing any of us do can come close to what he has done. He is on his way and so are we. Let us be about it, each in our own way.
Nicholas Johnson
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