The brokered convention scenario
From Tad Daley:
TALKING POINTS ON
The Brokered Convention Scenario
TO PERSUADE KUCINICH ADMIRERS TO BECOME KUCINICH VOTERS
FROM NATIONAL ISSUES DIRECTOR TAD DALEY
January 24, 2004 (362 Days to the Kucinich Inauguration)
In his response to the results in Iowa on Monday night, Democratic presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich said: "I predict a brokered convention." I have received several calls this week from campaign operatives and ordinary voters asking what this means, how it might benefit us, and how it might plausibly occur.
What do the words "brokered convention" mean? Simply that the Democratic primaries will not decisively settle on a candidate, and that the decision will be hammered out at the convention itself - with delegates as the currency of negotiation. That has not happened since 1960 when John Kennedy finally triumphed over Hubert Humphrey and Lyndon Johnson, nearly half a century ago.
How might such a brokered convention benefit us? All of us still believe that Dennis can win the nomination, win the general election, and be sworn in as president on January 20, 2005. Our first priority should always be to make the case that Dennis is the candidate who can best defeat George Bush.
But let's face it. Outside the dedicated Kucitizen camp, virtually no one believes we have any chance at all of winning the nomination. Yet some of these are Kucinich sympathizers who would like to be Kucinich voters. The brokered convention scenario gives them a reason to vote for Dennis. Why?
· Every single vote cast for Dennis in January, February, and March will translate into delegates that Dennis will wield in Boston in July.
· Those delegates will enable Dennis to tangibly influence the platform and positions that the Democratic candidate adopts, if it is not Dennis.
· Those delegates could enable Dennis to decisively influence who the Democratic candidate will be, if it is not Dennis.
· Those delegates will demonstrate to the party powerbrokers that there is indeed some body of support for things like single payer non-profit national health insurance, a Department of Peace to stand alongside the Department of Defense, and bridging the chasm between rich and poor around the block and around the world.
· And who knows? At a brokered convention, we just may be able to convince the Democratic Party that the candidate with the best chance to defeat George Bush is the one who poses the starkest contrast to George Bush - Dennis Kucinich. (For that argument, see #8 in my open letter of January 9th: Top Ten Responses to "I Love Kucinich But He Can't Win".)
Is it plausible to predict that 2004 will see the first brokered convention in a generation? Indeed it may be. Consider all the converging factors in this singular election:
· THE IOWA FALLOUT. The results in Iowa left the presidential race more muddled and uncertain that at any time in recent memory. As we all know, all winter long the polls forecast a Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt battle for victory ... only to have John Kerry and John Edwards emerge suddenly ascendant. All the remaining seven candidates have significant strengths, which are bound to translate into significant vote totals. All have weaknesses - a shortage of money and organization here, a shortage of experience or a shortage of charisma there. Many of the multiple February 3rd states, at least as they're polling today, are simply too close to call. It is difficult to imagine any alternative OTHER than numerous candidates garnering numerous delegates in the primaries over the next six weeks.
· PROPORTIONAL VOTING. In the olden days, many states used winner-take-all systems in their primaries. Now most award their delegates proportionally. If Dennis can manage to secure 5-7% of the vote nationwide, he will likely end up with 5-7% of the delegates. That may not sound like much. But at a brokered convention, it could play a crucial role in the outcome.
· SUPER DELEGATES. The nearly 800 super-delegates - elected officials and party honchos - can exercise considerable power at the convention. But many of these gravitated to Howard Dean as his juggernaut gained momentum last winter. Needless to say, at the moment Dean's star has dimmed considerably. In addition, since super-delegates can shift their allegiances, that means a single candidate cannot be guaranteed the nomination unless he wins more than 60% of the elected delegates between late January and early April. How likely is that in a seven-candidate field?
· FRONT LOADING. The uncertain state of the race may well mean that most of the candidates remain in the race at least until Super Tuesday (March 2nd). But by the morning of March 3rd, nearly half of the delegates will already have been chosen! It will thus simply be mathematically difficult for any presumptive frontrunner to amass enough delegates to guarantee the nomination after that time.
· CALIFORNIA'S RELEVANCE. To pick one tangible example of the unprecedented nature of today's campaign dynamic, last week the Los Angeles Times carried an article titled: "California may get a say in the race after all." That has not happened for either party in our largest state since 1972 (which says something about our nation's nominating process, doesn't it?). And here on the ground in Los Angeles there are many indications that Dennis may be poised to do quite well in California on March 2nd -- winning many delegates that he can exercise in Boston.
· THE KUCINICH SECRET WEAPON. We would not wish ourselves to be so far behind in money, endorsements, and poll numbers. But because that is where we find ourselves at the dawn of 2004, the "expectations" for our candidacy are extremely low. If we simply do "better than expected" in New Hampshire or even just a couple of the February 3rd states, it could unleash a tidal wave of new endorsements, new donations, and new voter support - precisely from the "I love Dennis but he can't win" crowd. The enormous amount of dormant support out there for Dennis is our secret weapon! If the first 7 or 8 primaries BOTH see Dennis do "better than expected" AND leave the race quite muddled and uncertain, Dennis could emerge as no less than the new story of the presidential contest.
So, a brokered convention is a real possibility. And a brokered convention could enable Dennis Kucinich to serve as a mighty progressive voice in the 2004 nominating process. And a brokered convention might even lead to the nomination and election of Dennis Kucinich as president!
So please urge voters to let go of all their doubts and fears. Please urge voters to reach for their hopes, cleave to their dreams, and stand up for the America we can become. There is much more at stake in this election than simply choosing the 2004 Democratic nominee for president.
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