Keep the torch burning
Received by email:
Kucinich Supporters,
Let yourself have a moment for disappointment. 1% in Iowa. Seems a long way to victory, indeed. I can sense a lot of people wanting to sigh, go back to their sustainable-house-in-the-woods, make a delicious organic dinner, and forget about the rest of the country. It is tempting to focus on more seemingly achievable goals -- a more conscious life for ourselves, our families, and our local community, small acts of social justice, and moments of personal generosity. The prospect of mobilizing to elect a man of Dennis' caliber in a country riddled with fear and dominated by special interests can be daunting.
I urge you to let the impulse to retreat pass. The country needs more from us. We are torchbearers precisely because we donıt scamper after polls, succumb to mass psychology, or give up when faced with challenge. No significant advance for any country in history has come easily. It takes leadership and a lot of tenacity. Dennis becoming our president will be a fundamental advance for America and to accomplish it will take extraordinary courage and leadership. Now is the moment when leaders rise to the occasion. All of us.
Even if the results from today were truly negative, our job as torchbearers is to stand that much stronger. Fortunately, the results from today carry many blessings for our campaign when we read them on a deeper level Indeed, if we allow the momentary deflation to pass, today can be a powerful beginning. Consider:
The field has narrowed with the elimination of Gephardt. This may be the single biggest positive for the Kucinich campaign. Most of Gephardt's union support is naturally aligned with Dennis. Many unions will likely wait to see how the next few primaries pan out before endorsing another candidate, giving us more time to build momentum and attract them home to Dennis. As the field narrows without Gephardt, this also makes the media bias against Dennis less severe. With seven candidates (and probably only six after New Hampshire), his coverage will proportionally increase. More airtime means more supporters and more momentum. Dean's façade of invulnerability is broken. Many have rallied behind him because he sounded and seemed like "the winner." That is now in very real doubt and his win-win-win braggadocio is less compelling. The benefit for Dennis? Huge numbers of Dean supporters are closet Dennis supporters who just don't believe (yet) that Dennis is electable. Many of these Dean "romancers" will be coming back to their more natural, progressive home with Dennis. Perhaps the biggest winner of the day in terms of exceeding expectations was John Edwards. What seems to have won many voters to him is his deeply optimistic message. His speeches often sound similar chords to those Dennis sounds. This is a sign that the climate of fear is beginning to break down. Americans are ultimately optimistic and the efficacy of anti-Bush messaging may be starting to wane. Since Dennis has by far the boldest, most optimistic vision for America's future of any candidate, this is an excellent sign of readiness for his progressive message. Dennis and John Edwards have created a deeper alliance. The "deal" to swap delegates when either had a "non-viable" (>15%) group may have been a strong factor in Edwards' outstanding showing. This alliance can bear fruit in many ways: it is newsworthy, it can help in later states in terms of mutual support, and it will help increase coverage when Edwards is treating Dennis with respect as a very real candidate. Finally, if Dennis surges and becomes one of the two most likely candidates at the national convention, a strong alliance with Edwards could result in some of Edwards' early delegate wins being transferred to Dennis. Negative campaigning by frontrunners can leave them all damaged and prone to surges from others. Money that goes into high-profile battles between leaders is essentially lost. Gebhart poured everything into winning Iowa and his battle with Dean cost both of them a great deal. The front-runners funding may run low as they slug it out in early primaries, which will even the playing field for Dennis, who is running a more shoestring campaign but nonetheless amassing considerable matching funds to take him through the national convention. John Kerry's ascendancy provides a good juxtaposition to Dennis, one that can become advantageous later on in. Kerry's a tall, Blue Blood, establishment guy with a massive fortune versus a short man of the people with a populist message and a 35,000 bank account. Kerry has buffed off some of the aristocracy but he's unlikely to inspire the populist movement that is getting so activated this year. If he maintains a lead, that can draw more people to Dennis via contrast. Expectations have now been set very low by the mainstream media. It is probable, given the arcane Iowa caucus system with the 15% viability threshhold, that Dennis would have got something like 4-8% of the popular vote but ended up with only 1.6% of the delegates. The advantage of this is that if he gets the same percentage of the popular vote in New Hampshire, say 5%, that will appear on the surface like a large advance. The psychology of this can matter in building momentum. Dennis can really only go up in terms of percentage, which becomes increasingly newsworthy. It's a good position for Dennis to be in to have a fair amount of money, a campaign infrastructure in 50 states, a strong grassroots support base, and to have the designated leaders slugging it out with much larger amounts of money and much higher expectations. He can build momentum more easily and quietly until breakout. Rapid changes are possible. Edwards went from single-digits to second place in Iowa in less than a month. We have many months to go and there can be rapid shifts, especially as coverage heats up and more negative campaigning is unleashed. Remember that Bill Clinton, our last successful Democratic nominee, got only 2.5% of the vote in Iowa. The Internet-era has accelerated the speed at which these shifts can take place. It really is anyone's ballgame and there are now fewer candidates in the race.
There are other elements of today that are indeed very positive. But I'm here to say, regardless of whether the results of any particular day are positive or not, it is the job of torchbearers to carry onward, no matter what the news. We have a man who can lead America's next stage of transformation and we need to be his champions. I am glad for all the other torchbearers out there sharing this path with me.
In spirit, Stephen Dinan
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