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the terms of the debate

Date: December 23, 2003 | 27 Shawwal 1424 Hijriah
Subjects: analysis, bloc, vote
In my discussion about the Muslim vote, I am talking in terms of what actually is. As I mentioned in the introductory post in this series, there are nine national Muslim organizations that have formed a coalition towards the political mobilization of the American Muslim community. They have a stated goal of endorsing one of the presidential candidates and calling on American Muslims to vote as a bloc for this candidate.

I see some deficiencies in the way that this process is being carried out and the first two posts in this series are written in order to explain what I think these deficiencies are and what I think should be done instead. The first post looks at the overall endorsement process. As I stated in that post, I believe that the endorsement coalition could be doing more to gather information about the candidates and a lot more to present this information to Muslims. I believe that, given their stated goal of helping Muslims to select the candidate that seems to best support the interests of the Muslim community, they need to help Muslims develop informed opinions rather than just taking popularity polls that mostly measure how much the candidates are in the news. The most famous candidate is not necessarily the one who will be best for Muslims.

In the second post in the series, I examine the question again from the specific angle of the Muslim bloc vote. I have not actually presented an argument for bloc voting instead of non bloc voting. The Muslim political coalition has stated that they are seeking to mobilize a bloc vote so I'm taking that as a given. I actually do believe that a bloc vote strategy is a good way for the American Muslim community to pursue its interests, but I haven't specifically made a case for that. Instead, the second post in the series deals with some deficiencies that I see in the coalition's process. I believe that they have not thought enough about the way that a bloc vote works and what the purpose of a bloc vote is. The second post, then, is devoted to setting out my ideas of a better way to run the bloc vote.

Some of the arguments that I made are:

1) A minor candidate is better than a major candidate because with a major candidate, the bloc disappears in the majority vote.
2) A minor candidate is better than a major candidate because the minor candidate can be more closely identified with the bloc and thus represent its interests, while a major candidate is not able to ally himself that closely with the bloc's interests.
3) Because of the above two factors, the chosen candidate and his delegates will be able to act as "representatives" of the bloc at the nominating convention. As other candidates woo the delegates, they will need to make concessions to win the support of these delegates. For instance, if the delegates all believe that the Patriot Act must be repealed, then another candidate might agree to take a stronger stand against the Patriot Act in order to secure the support of these delegates. In this way, the delegates have advanced the interests of those who want to repeal the Patriot Act.

My argument, then, is that in order to advance the interests of the Muslim community, Muslims need to select a candidate who will be closely allied with their interests and able to speak for those interests at the convention and that a minor candidate is better than a major candidate for this purpose.

Howard Dean, as the front-runner, is by definition not a "minor candidate". As stated above and in the earlier post, I believe that a bloc vote for the front-runner is a wasted vote. All we would end up doing is contributing to the majority, and our particular interests will never be spoken of much less advanced. Supporters of Howard Dean will need to show that Dean in fact so closely represents the interests of American Muslims that he is already speaking for them and will continue to do so even though Muslims have no particular leverage with him. Quite frankly, I think that's a pretty tough case to make and that's why Dean supporters keep trying to change the basis of the debate. They are free to do that if they want, but since this is my blog, anybody who wants to debate with me here plays by my rules.

Now, Dennis Kucinich is undeniably a "minor" candidate. I believe he has much more support than is reported in the media, but the fact remains that he is trailing in the polls and in fundraising. Since I have set out that a minor candidate is better than a major one for the purposes of the bloc vote, Kucinich has an advantage over Dean here. While Dean supporters have to show why a front-runner can play the bloc vote game after all, Kucinich supporters have a candidate who already meets this criterion and his case is automatically made.

Other minor candidates include Al Sharpton and Carol Moseley Braun. Depending on who you ask, Joe Lieberman and John Edwards may also be "minor candidates" in terms of their polling and fundraising performance recently. I am willing to accept that all four of these candidates have made their case on this point. However, supporters of Clark, Kerry, and Gephardt should provide the same materials as Dean supporters.

While we wait for Dean supporters to get serious, let's take our field as being Kucinich, Sharpton, Moseley Braun, Lieberman, and Edwards (remember, this is my blog, so it's my rules).

Any of those five candidates would be able to act as a suitable vehicle for the bloc vote, as explained above. Now we need to select the right one for the job. In the earlier post on bloc voting I mentioned two basic criteria:

1) The candidate's stands on the issues should be very similar to Muslim stands.
2) The candidate should be willing to speak to and for the Muslim community.

As I mentioned in the comments on the bloc voting post, I will be using the criteria set out by the Muslim endorsing organizations as the basis for the discussion here. The complete list of criteria is:

1) Positions on the issues
2) Performance record
3) Accessability to Muslim community
4) Support in the Muslim community
5) Electability

I have stated that I don't consider electability to be a significant factor and that in fact a "minor candidate" is a better choice. I am also taking the performance record criterion to be a way of showing that the candidate actually stands for the things he says he does and is willing to take action on them. Thus, both positions and record go to the first of my criteria ("The candidate's stands on the issues should be very similar to Muslim stands"). Accessibility and support go to the second of my criteria ("The candidate should be willing to speak to and for the Muslim community").

Thus, under the terms of my debate, supporters of Kucinich, Sharpton, Moseley Braun, Lieberman, and Edwards should provide position statements and voting or performance records as well as evidence that their candidates are accessible to the Muslim community and have a strong base of support from it. Supporters of Dean, Clark, Kerry, and Gephardt should first provide an explanation of how their candidate can serve as a suitable vehicle for a bloc vote and then provide the same materials as for the other candidates.

To keep things simple, and based on various political discussions with Muslims, the following are the key issues to address:

1) Civil liberties
2) Iraq
3) Middle East
4) Education
5) Healthcare
6) Jobs and economy

A short paragraph dealing with each of the issues, summarizing the performance record, and detailing accessibility to Muslims, and support among them, will be sufficient.

And yes, the case for Kucinich is coming, inshallah. But first, I realized that I needed to clarify the terms of the debate and bring some order to this discussion.
~ Posted by Al-Muhajabah, a member of the reality-based community, at 12:30 AM

Comments

Omar said: Total comments: 1  

Subject: Re: the terms of the debate

Well, I think that we must always vote as the "Lesser of the two evils". Because we must be realists, we will never get a candidate, at least in this day-in-age, that completely agrees with us. Im only looking at one thing, Iraq. Kucinich is my favorite, but he'll never win, so i donated $12 to the Dean campaign. Anything is better than George W. Bush. If we Muslims voted for Kucinich it would be a wasted vote, lets just get Dean more support and the more support he has the better chance Bush will lose. Bush has totally screwed up the world, he has bombed our countries, he hates Islam. We should be stragetic realists. If we voted with the ones that agreed with us most, we'd vote Republican, we are as Muslims Anti-Abortion, Pro-Death Penalty, and Anti-Euthanasia. But who really cares about those things, the thing that matters most is Foreign Policy, and both parties suck for that, so the lesser of two evils is the way to go.

~ Posted at December 23, 2003 07:19 PM | Comment Permalink
moderator Al-Munaqabah said: Total comments: 996   gold stargold stargold stargold stargold star

Subject: Re: the terms of the debate

Thanks for sharing your thoughts, Omar. It's too bad you seem to have missed the point of this entire discussion. It's also too bad that your solution to the "not enough people are supporting Kucinich" is to not support him either. Where is the logic? It's fine to support Dean if you actually think that he's the best candidate, but when you settle for second best you deserve exactly what you get. Have a nice day.

~ Posted at December 24, 2003 04:13 AM | Comment Permalink
Tayyab said: Total comments: 6  

Subject: Re: the terms of the debate

Salam Omar,
When it comes to supporting the candidate that is running against George Bush, you will get the chance to do just that after July 2004 when the National Democratic Convention will choose the final nominee. I really hope that the nominee is Kucinich, but even if it turns out to be Dean, it's not oo late to get behind him then. The primaries are the time to tell the Democratic Party which issues are important to us, and we can only do that by supporting the candidate that supports our issues. If we support Dean in the primaries, we are basically saying that we are fine with his stances, and that he is speaking up for Muslims, which he certainly is not.

~ Posted at December 24, 2003 10:33 AM | Comment Permalink
Brian Ulrich said: Total comments: 41   gold stargold stargold stargold star

Subject: Re: the terms of the debate

Do convention delegates really matter that much? I haven't looked closely at that part of the process, but it seems to me that the nominee's campaign basically gets to run the convention like a coronation ceremony. Policy patronage will be dispensed to those groups which have been most loyal and convention roles to groups they most want to be associated with.

I'm on record as a Dean supporter, but am not trying to make that case here. In my personal voting, I also don't worry so much about electability.

~ Posted at December 24, 2003 02:48 PM | Comment Permalink
Tayyab said: Total comments: 6  

Subject: Re: the terms of the debate

Convention delegates do matter, if there is a close competition between two candidates. For example, if Dean goes in with 40% of the delegates, Clark with 40% of the delegates and Kucinich with 40% of the delegates, then no one really has the majority of delegates needed to get the nomination. In this scenario, two of the candidates would have to reach some sort of agreement, in exchange for getting the support of additional delegates. It is imaginable that in the above hypothetical situation, Dean and Clark would both vie for the support of Kucinich's delegates, and in return they will be willing to accept of the issues on his platform, or perhaps even go as far as to offer the VP slot to Kucinich for his support. Of course, I'm hoping for and working towards the goal of Kucinich winning the nomination outright.

The nominee's campaign would only get to run the convention as a coronation ceremony if they end up with an outright and clear majority of the delegates in the primaries. If not, then they have to prove their support amongst the delegates just like any of the other candidates with significant number of delegates. The advantage of the voting system in the primaries is that it uses proportional representation, as opposed to winner-take-all, to assign the delegates to the different candidates, and there is no such thing as a wasted vote. One is free to vote with their heart in the primaries, but should vote with their brain in the general election.

~ Posted at December 24, 2003 11:03 PM | Comment Permalink
Tayyab said: Total comments: 6  

Subject: Re: the terms of the debate

In the above example, I mistyped. I meant to write Dean 40%, Clark 40%, and Kucinich 20% share of the delegates.

~ Posted at December 24, 2003 11:14 PM | Comment Permalink
moderator Al-Munaqabah said: Total comments: 996   gold stargold stargold stargold stargold star

Subject: Re: the terms of the debate

Tayyab is correct. The delegates are chosen by proportional representation in each Congressional district. Thus, each candidate who gets at least 15% of the vote in a given Congressional district gets a share of delegates. There's no "winner takes all" at either the state or the Congressional district level.

Additionally, more than 1/3 of all the delegates are "unpledged". In order for a candidate to be the clear winner going into the convention, he would have to have about 67% of the delegates selected via the primaries and caucuses. Dean is doing well, but not that well.

It is still very likely that the Democrats will go into the convention without a clear winner. That means that the front-running candidates will be seeking to add another group of delegates to their own in order to get them over the top. That is where delegates for "minor" candidates like Kucinich and Sharpton can play a role, as I set out.

~ Posted at December 25, 2003 04:48 AM | Comment Permalink
Ali said: Total comments: 1  

Subject: Re: the terms of the debate

Pro death penalty, anti-abortion? I'm a Muslim and I'm neither of those things. I thought Islam is less judgemental on abortion than some of these right-wing lunatics.

As for the death penalty, of course it is one of the hudud for certain crimes but it's a last resort and no excuse to get rid of your tired, poor, huddled masses. Allahu Alim.

~ Posted at December 24, 2003 07:25 PM | Comment Permalink
Omar said: Total comments: 1  

Subject: Re: the terms of the debate

Salam,
Sorry if I seemed rude or anything. What im saying is if you look at the polls, Dean is first, Clark is second (which I predict will drop) and Liberman (Super-Zionist) is third. By supporting Kucinich you drop Dean support that he needs which boosts Liberman (Super-Zionist) in the polls, so its just safe to go Dean.

I do like Kucinich best of all though, I will admit that, but Dean's our best bet.

~ Posted at December 28, 2003 01:33 PM | Comment Permalink
moderator Al-Munaqabah said: Total comments: 996   gold stargold stargold stargold stargold star

Subject: Re: the terms of the debate

Your views on the current Democratic race are quite unusual and don't match with what most people think. Lieberman has next to no support among Democratic party activists. The idea that supporting Kucinich somehow throws votes to Lieberman seems bizarre.

If you don't choose to support the candidate that best represents your interests - as you yourself admit - that's fine, but it seems rather odd for you to urge others to compromise on what they believe in the name of expediency. If we do not speak up for ourselves, no one else is going to. And if we do not support the candidate who voices our views, then we should not be surprised when no one pays any attention to our views.

You speak as someone who has already given up and who wants others to do so as well. Is that really the right form of nasiha?

As for me, I will continue to speak up for what I think is right and to work with others who share my vision because that is the only way we will ever see it made reality.

~ Posted at December 28, 2003 01:48 PM | Comment Permalink
Tayyab said: Total comments: 6  

Subject: Re: the terms of the debate

Salam Omar,

I appreciate your concern about the possibility of Lieberman gaining advantage of our supporting Kucinich over Dean. I would like to assure you that your worry about this happening is unfounded because of how the primaries are set-up.

If Lieberman has the support of only 25% of the voters he will end up with 25% of the delegates at the convention. If Dean has the support of 35% of the voters, and Kucinich has the support of 15% of the voters, then Dean will end up with 35% of the delegates and Kucinich will end up with 15% of the delegates. If we assume that Kucinich drops out in favor of Dean, and all of his supporters switch to Dean, then Dean will have 50% of the delegates but Lieberman will still have only 25% of the delegates because his number of supporters didn't go up.

As far as the concept of a wasted vote is concerned, it is only relevant in the general election, for example if you vote for a third party candidate or an independent such as Nader because of the winner-take-all system that is used, but it is not applicable to the primaries because of the proportional representation system used for the primaries. In each congressional district across the country, 6 (sometimes 5) delegates are elected to go to the Democratic National Convention in July, and that Convention elects the nominee. These delegates are not at all assigned on the basis of winner take all, but rather on the basis of proportional representation. So, even if we vote for a candidate that is not likely to win, but we get him a share of delegates to the convention, it makes that candidate have a voice there, and possibly even influence who gets to be the final nominee. It is even conceivable that the runner up in the primaries might be offered by the winner to join the Democratic ticket as a candidate for VP in order to unify the Democrats, or even be offered a Secretary level position in the next Administration. VP is quite an important post, and even though a VP is nowhere as visible in terms of public policy, or media spotlight, he/she serves as the Chairman of the Senate, conducting it's sessions and setting it's direction and agenda. Dennis will make an awesome Chairman of Senate and already has substantial legislative experience from his years of duty in Congress. Of course he will make a much better President, and that's what we are working for, Inshallah.

I would also advise you to not look at polls too closely. Bill Clinton at this time of the year, when he ran for president, was polling at 6%, and he lost in Iowa as well as New Hampshire, yet still went on to win the nomination.

And no, you are not being rude. It is good to ask any questions you may have, or raise any concern that you have, so that we may come to the best agreement for our cause, Inshallah. The most important thing is for Muslims to be united and work together in order to be effective.

~ Posted at December 30, 2003 02:50 AM | Comment Permalink

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