veiled4allah: Pew survey on religion and politics

The survey shows that a significant number of Americans would be reluctant to vote for a well-qualified candidate if he or she were a member of a particular religious group, especially a Muslim (38%). But many more express reservations about voting for a candidate without religion than one with a specific faith (52%). In all, 64% of Americans admit that a candidate’s religion, or lack thereof, could lead them to vote against a well-qualified candidate from their own party... ...Nearly a third of the public (31%) says there are reasons they might not vote for a Muslim presidential candidate. Again, white evangelicals are the most skeptical – 42% say this could be a sticking point for them. Not surprisingly, the tendency not to vote for a Muslim presidential candidate is closely related to perceptions of the Islamic faith. People who think Islam encourages violence more than other religions are more likely to say they have reason not to vote for a Muslim candidate than people who think Islam is no more violent than other faiths (43% vs. 23% margin).

[Ed. note: For comparison, 41% say there are reasons they might not vote for an atheist, 20% say there are reasons they might not vote for an Evangelical Christian, 15% say there are reasons they might not vote for a Catholic, and 14% say there are reasons they might not vote for a Jew]

...Religious belief plays an important role in shaping public attitudes on several policy issues, from the dispute in the Middle East to the question of whether gays and lesbians should be permitted to marry. In particular, there is no doubt that belief in the biblical importance of Israel has a major impact on public opinion toward the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Overall, a plurality of Americans (44%) believe God gave the land that is now Israel to the Jewish people, while 36% say this is not literally true. Fewer people believe that the state of Israel fulfills a biblical prophesy about Jesus’ second coming; 36% say this, while 46% disagree...

...Americans continue to side with Israel in its dispute with the Palestinians. Currently, 41% say they sympathize more with Israel, while 13% sympathize more with the Palestinians, a margin that has remained relatively stable in recent years; 8% volunteer feelings of sympathy for both sides of the conflict, and 18% for neither. Religion continues to play an important factor in shaping these attitudes, with evangelical Christians far more likely than members of other religious groups to express sympathy for Israel. More than half of white evangelicals (55%) sympathize with Israel, compared with 41% of black Protestants, 39% of white Catholics, and 34% of white mainline Protestants. Seculars are split on this issue, with fewer than a quarter (24%) sympathizing with Israel over the Palestinians, and nearly as many (20%) siding with the Palestinians.

There is no doubt that Americans’ religious beliefs about biblical prophesy play a role in shaping views on the Mideast situation. Among the 36% of Americans who see Israel as a fulfilment of prophesy about the second coming of Jesus, the vast majority sympathize with Israel over the Palestinians (by a 57% to 9% margin). Sympathy for the Palestinians is twice as high (18%) among the 46% who do not believe Israel fulfills a biblical prophesy, and far fewer side with Israel (34%). The relevance of biblical prophesy is powerful even within religious denominations. For example, nearly two-thirds (64%) of white evangelical Protestants who believe Israel fulfills a biblical prophesy say they sympathize with Israel, compared with 47% of white evangelicals who do not hold this belief...

...In the current poll, 44% of Americans say that Islam is more likely to encourage violence than other religions, up from 25% in the March 2002 poll. This opinion is as prevalent among better educated individuals and those who are more knowledgeable about Islam as among the less educated and less knowledgeable. And where white evangelicals once stood out for their belief that Islam is more likely to encourage violence, there are fewer religious differences now.

In 2002, more highly committed white evangelical Protestants than people of other religious traditions held this opinion – 41% compared with 25% of white mainline Protestants, 24% of white Catholics, and 24% of black Protestants. Seculars were least likely to hold this view; only 18% agreed in 2002. Today, evangelicals and mainline Protestants have the same opinion: 51% of evangelicals and 50% of mainline Protestants agree that the Islamic religion is more likely than others to encourage violence, while this opinion also has grown among white Catholics (39%), black Protestants (37%), and seculars (38%).

People who consider themselves politically conservative are most likely to connect Islam and violence. More than half of conservatives (54%) say Islam is more likely than other religions to encourage violence, compared with 43% of moderates and just 32% of liberals. And while this sentiment has increased among all three ideological groups, the liberal-conservative gap is greater today than a year ago. Similarly, the South stood out in 2002, with 31% saying Islam was more violent (compared with 24% or fewer in other parts of the country); now, people in all regions have roughly comparable views on this issue...

...Yet growing views of Islam as a religion that encourages violence have not resulted in a significant change in American views of Muslims, Muslim-Americans, or even of Islam in general. A narrow majority of the public – 51% – has a favorable view of Muslim-Americans, and only 24% have an unfavorable view (25% have no opinion). This is about the same rating as last year (54% favorable), but down from the 59% rating in a November 2001 poll, just a few months after 9/11.

Unfavorable ratings for Muslim-Americans have inched upward over this same time period from 17% soon after the attacks to 24% today. But Muslim-Americans remain slightly better regarded now than they were before 9/11; in March 2001, 45% had a favorable opinion of Muslim-Americans.

Opinions are slightly less favorable of Muslims who are not identified as Americans: 47% favorable, 31% unfavorable. Neither measure has changed significantly since last year. Ratings of the Islamic faith remain lower than ratings for Muslims. In spite of the growing sense that Islam is a religion that encourages violence, however, general perceptions of Islam have not changed. Four-in-ten have a favorable impression of the religion, while 34% have an unfavorable opinion (26% have no opinion), virtually unchanged from 15 months ago.

As has been true in previous years, Muslims are less popular than people of other religious faiths but more popular than atheists. Muslim-Americans and Muslims are seen less favorably than Jews (72% favorable), Protestants (70%), and Catholics (69%), and slightly below evangelical Christians (58% favorable, 18% unfavorable). “People who aren’t religious” receive favorable ratings similar to Muslims (50%), but the public has a more unfavorable view of the non-religious (33% unfavorable). Majorities of the public continue to give atheists an unfavorable rating: 52%, compared with 34% favorable. Views of each of these groups have changed very little since March 2002.

Somewhat fewer people now than last year say that Islam and their own religion have a lot in common: 22% this year, compared with 27% in March 2002 and 31% in November of 2001. Catholics have changed the most on this measure, with 14% fewer saying their religion has a lot in common with Islam. Evangelicals and mainline Protestants have changed very little. Overall, far more among the college educated than the less educated see commonality between Islam and their religion, and the views of the college educated have changed very little since last year.

The survey underscores an important and often overlooked fact of American politics: African-Americans and white evangelical Christians are remarkably similar in their views about the role of religion in politics, yet they come to sharply different partisan conclusions. Both groups think the country would be better off if religion were more influential, both defend the role of religious leaders as political spokesmen, and both share similar views on important social issues, such as assisted suicide and gay marriage. Yet their attitudes toward President Bush and partisan politics are almost diametrically opposed. White evangelicals lean strongly toward Bush and the Republicans, and African-Americans lean strongly against both the president and his party. These two groups – both of them highly engaged and religious – stand as important countervailing forces in American public life... ...Fully 72% of Americans agree that the government should provide universal health care, even if it means repealing most tax cuts passed since Bush took office. Democrats overwhelmingly favor this proposal (86%-11%) and independents largely agree (78%-19%). Even a narrow majority of Republicans (51%) favor providing health insurance for all even if it means canceling the tax cuts, while 44% disagree.

In addition, most Americans – especially those who support repealing tax cuts to provide universal health coverage – see this as a moral issue as well as a political issue. Just a third believes this is strictly a political issue, while a narrow majority (52%) views it also as a moral question. A big majority of those who support this proposal – 61% – think of it as a moral as well as a political issue, while most opponents tend to see this in strictly political terms (58%)...