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The Strange Case of the Vanishing Terrorists

Date: August 25, 2004 | 8 Rajab 1425 Hijriah
Subjects: antiterrorism
The French newspaper Liberation published a most interesting interview last week with Marc Sageman. Sageman is identified as a 51 year old American psychiatrist of French origins, and a terrorism specialist. He was formerly with the CIA, and directed Mujahadeen groups in Afghanistan during the eighties. He has created a data base with the profiles of 382 terrorists who claim to be from Al-Qaeda or other closely linked Islamist movements, and has been consulted by the Bush administration...

...Asked to comment on the administration assertion that Al-Qaeda has succeeded in preserving "certain elements of its centralized command structure," Sageman replies:

Al-Qaeda is a social movement, not a hierarchical organization. There's always a desire to communicate, to send messages by audio or video cassette...But this desire does not find expression on the ground. The Madrid, Casablanca, and Istanbul attacks were entirely conceived, planned, and realized at the local level. No order came from a centralized authority.

In other words, there is no serious Al-Qaeda command structure. Whatever capacity for centralized organization Al-Qaeda once possessed, that capacity has been seriously degraded. The Bush administration, of course, still prefers to promote on occasion the image of an Osama-led directorate, communicating with its minions and coordinating future campaigns of terror through cleverly coded audio tapes and internet messages. Or even, as G.W. might say, through "subliminable messages."

Sageman, on the other hand, seems to tell us that what is now left of Al-Qaeda is a diffuse social movement of local actors, still potentially dangerous, but with little coordination or capacity for major operations of the 9/11 sort. The vaunted "global reach" of Al-Qaeda is no longer in evidence. It is Sageman's impression that Al-Qaeda is over-estimated:

Because we want to prevent the worst. The authorities sound the alarm at the least incident. They send three FBI agents to the airport because some guy has simply forgotten to take a cutter out of his bag. Everything is considered suspect. The danger is that the security services can no longer recognize real signals that indicate something happening in the deluge of information - this "noise", as it is called.
(link to original interview in French)

More commentary is available from the New Century Journal blog.
~ Posted by Al-Muhajabah, a fair and balanced niqabi, at 04:28 AM

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